• Word is BRL is ready for a return, less risk aversion etc – not sure out of the mire yet on this one… #
• Let’s just hope it’s a bit quieter after yesterday – pips to be made but I need a bit of a rest… #

It’s not the fact that we’ve placed a losing trade, it’s the fact that we shouldn’t have placed a trade in the first place. We’ve all got a great set of excuses just to get that ‘trade’ button clicked in the first place, when we probably shouldn’t have.

Fact is, when I started out, I had the newbie’s disease of being unable to go 15 minutes with the charts in front of me without placing a trade. Being naturally conservative, I didn’t come to much harm, but it didn’t do the education much good.

Nowadays, I suffer mainly from #8 – constant tinkering with the mental system, without actually taking it as far as producing concrete rules and maybe even writing them down – and thinking I’ve got it all figured…
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• GBP bullish, probably more due to no mention of good ol quantitative easing than the rate cut itself… #
• BOE vague rumor is still 25bp cut at 12GMT leaving wriggle room and pleasing no-one. Sell GBP/USD still looks the way at present #
• Big day today, amici, hope all in position for 50bp cut for GBP #

Today’s the day – it’s interest rate decision day in both the UK and the Euro zone, coming up at 12:00 GMT for the Bank of England and 12:45 GMT for the European Central Bank. And news events move charts…

The ECB is expected to hold firm in the face of the economic storm and keep its rate unchanged at 2%, but hints and whispers, as always, suggest otherwise. Look out for the possibility of an unexpected cut, which will certainly shake things up some. If nothing else it may destabilize the unspoken agreements implicit in the Euro, France Germany, Ireland, for example, wouldn’t be averse to a cut. Portugal and several of the ’smaller’ members are keen for it to stay as is.
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Ok, here’s what I do for a strategy, or even a system, a general outline without going into huge detail – but don’t blindly copy any of this, just for the sake of it. It’s what I feel works for me, it’s been formed from my experiences, opinions, prejudices etc. You, on the other hand, may – hopefully will – have a completely different outlook and personality which is going to suit a different style of trading – there’s room for everyone.
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• GPB/USD still breaking out – look out for an evening star formation on 5-min = bearish, if you fancy scalping on the correction #
• GBP/USD still bouncing big time, but broken out of bollinger bands upside at the moment, and still tomorrow’s interest rate news to come #

Here’s a post going the other way – if you fancy yourself as a gambler, don’t learn about the forex business, it’s not for you.

Hey, it’s like poker.
It’s not like poker – just one of the many things it shouldn’t be like is poker.
You think that edge-of-the-seat stuff, adrenalin rushes, a bit of healthy panic are going to be integral and vital to the whole game? If you think that’s how the big guys do it, operating as if supercool, suave casino habitués, then you’d be way wrong. The big guys are nerds. They wouldn’t know what the hell they were doing in a real casino.
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There’s a fair amount written and spoken about volume analysis in forex trading, volume spread analysis, VSA, etc. but, in very simple terms, volumes can be a good indication of who’s doing the buying and selling – is it large volume professional money going into the market, or is it just the smaller traders twitching the currencies around a little at the moment?
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Weird times – but good to learn about trading, while all this is going on.

The Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its rate by 100 basis points this morning- the fifth consecutive cut by the RBA.

Thursday will have a similar deal – the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England announce their interest rates. The ECB is forecast – only forecast – to keep things the same, resisting any pressure to cut – which the larger members of the EU, France, Germany, would prefer – but others, Portugal, for example are dead against it.
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Not specifically concerned with the forex market, but markets in general, here’s an analysis of money management that well worth checking out. There’s good information on drawdown and how it will affect the (smaller) trader, also some of the subtler points about risk/reward calculation that escape people at times.

Definitely a conservative, low-risk approach – and nothing wrong with that – as a treatise on what to avoid when starting out, definitely worth some careful reading.
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