Richard Donchian, no longer with us, was the devisor of several trend-following systems, not least the Turtle Trading system, which is still with us.
Donchian channels are a measure of market volatility, much the same as Bollinger bands
and are about as simple as you can get:-
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Here’s a forex market movement for our times:-
Despite forecasts for a depreciation of the Dollar, many economists are now saying that the negative housing data released from the United States yesterday may actually bolster the USD.
Let’s state the effect in the simplest possible terms.
Bad news for the US economy, lower jobs, lower GDP, leads to lack of confidence
Which leads to a rush towards safe haven currencies…
Which leads to buying
USD – because
USD is in itself, considered a safe-haven currency…
So bad US news leads to USD going up.
This rush to a safe haven, any safe haven, after every news announcement is creating some weird effects. It flies in the face of logic, well, simple logic anyway – and is a sign of the present dominance of
USD
No, I don’t know of any name for this upsidedown, wrong-way-round, echo, reverb effect – but it certainly ought to have a name…
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Camarilla Pivot Points are (unfortunately) covered in the same mystique as Fibonacci retracement – involving higher mathematics to produce a magic formula that somehow the markets are bound to follow – well, to be honest, the math involved is more simple arithmetic than anything else.
8 levels, 4 of resistance, 4 of support, are produced, using High, Low and Close data for a preceding time period.
R4 = (H – L) x 1.1 / 2 + C
R3 = (H – L) x 1.1 / 4 + C
R2 = (H – L) x 1.1 / 6 + C
R1 = (H – L) x 1.1 / 12 + C
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“It’s the interest rate banks charge each other.”
The London Interbank Offered Rate is a daily reference rate based on the interest rates at which an institution (ie. a bank) can borrow unsecured funds from other institutions in the London wholesale money (or interbank) market.
It is essentially similar to the US Federal funds rate – the interest rate at which private depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions.
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ETFs, exchange-traded funds, grew out of the older style, mutual funds or unit trusts.
Since ETFs trade on the market, investors can use the same trading tools as they can with a conventional stock, for example, limit orders, stop-loss orders, margin/leverage, selling short, and no restriction on lot size.
ETFs retain the valuation feature of a unit trust, which can be purchased/redeemed at the end of each day for its net value – but you’re not limited to trading at the close price. An ETF is continually priced through market trading hours and so intra-day trading becomes possible. (Not something that ever went on with unit trusts or mutual funds).
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Gold has always been a safe haven, when times get hard – as of now, the price has pushed ahead to US$950 an ounce. (That’s a troy ounce – precious metals still work in pennyweights etc., from when silver and gold were the currency…) The other precious metals have always tended to be coupled with gold – silver is up around 20% in the last 2 months, platinum and palladium around 15%.
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At first sight, it’s great – Twitter is absolutely made for the forex market and traders – up-to-the-second tweets about what’s happening on the markets, a global perspective, maybe the odd bit of free advice from people who know… But then the problem comes… too much information.
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Let’s say you’re forex trading more than 1 lot, and it’s a winning trade – the pair price has hit your target for profit, previously calculated – and you exit 50% of your current position. Opinion can vary, 60, 70%, but the main thing is you are locking in profit – scaling, or scaling out, your profitable trades.
Time has passed – the market has moved to reflect new circumstances, what was true then, is now altered… so you change your position and go into a revised risk/reward situation.
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You don’t actually own the stuff you’re buying.
CFDs are a way of trading without buying or selling the underlying financial instrument, whether currency, stock, equity, directly. So, as such, liquidity doesn’t enter into it – in that sense, a purer speculation on price movement up or down.
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Bollinger bands are a great way of understanding market movements if you’re new to the forex game. Everybody uses them, and overall, the concept is relatively easy to understand. And your charting software will do all the work for you – so at first, no need to go into all the math involved.
And here’s a nice enough example. GPB/USD 30-min chart – the currency pair becoming range-bound, candlesticks shortening and then breakout – here, to the downside.

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